US Fuel Price Trends
Julianne Zheng, Lam Le, Philan Tran
2026-03-05
Introduction
Dataset - Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - Weekly fuel price observations from Aug 1980 - Jun 2025 - 22,360 observations across fuel type, grade, and formulation
Variables - date, fuel, grade, formulation, price
Focus of Analysis - Restrict to 1995 onward when diesel and gasoline data are most complete
Research Questions
- How has pricing of gasoline and diesel changed over time?
- How do Global Oil Markets and Domestic Production Geography Influence U.S. Fuel Prices?
Research Question 1
How has pricing of gasoline and diesel changed over time?
Fuel prices fluctuate due to both seasonal demand patterns and long-term market forces.
We are focused on examining:
- long-term trends
- seasonal effects
- abnormal price shocks
Seasonality in Fuel Prices
Long-Term Fuel Price Trends
Research Question 2
How do Global Oil Markets and Domestic Production Geography Influence U.S. Fuel Prices?
Although oil is traded globally, fuel is consumed locally.
U.S. fuel prices are influenced by both:
- international crude oil markets
- domestic infrastructure and transportation networks
Global and U.S. Oil Price Divergence
Domestic Oil Infrastructure
Domestic Consumption and Supply Chain Reliance
High-consumption regions remain dependent on traditional oil transport networks.
Factors Driving Domestic Oil Transport Costs:
The Jones Act (1920): Mandates that domestic maritime trade use vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S, flagged, and majority-U.S. crewed.
Land-Based Logistics: Utilizing rail or truck transport carries significantly higher operational costs and environmental risks compared to maritime shipping.