Cryptocurrency Digger

Elegant Raichu
Yichen Wang, Yushan Zhang, Shiyi Zheng, Qingyao Meng

2023-12-03

Introduce the topic and motivation

Cryptocurrency

  • correlate with various macroeconomic indicators

  • Shiny application

Motivation

  • Growing Interest in Cryptocurrency market

  • Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

  • Decision-Making Aid for Investors

Introduce the data

  • From Yahoo finance, Fred & Crypto Datadownload

  • Be composed of 5 macroeconomic indicators and 5 top popular cryptocurrencies

  • Data interval was between 2017-01-03 - 2023-09-29

  • Normalization：step_normalize()

    2017-01-03 before normalization after normalization
    dxy 103.21 1.1631069
    S&P 500 2257.83 -1.524405

Highlights from EDA

·Graphical analysis revealed similar trends among all variables with notable patterns

·Gold and U.S. Dollar Index closely paralleled each other, while Ixic_price and bitcoin price showed comparable trends

·Uncertainties potentially led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, with Bitcoin as a digital gold-like option

Key Features

Cryptocurrency Digger

Predictions Based on ML

Model Selection: XGBoost model

High performance, handling datasets, handling missing values Be composed of 5 macroeconomic indicators and 5 top popular cryptocurrencies Data interval was between 2017-01-03 - 2023-09-27

Key Features - date, inflation rate, gold price, US dollar

Conclusions + future work

Conclusions

  • Macroeconomic factors, including stimulus measures and monetary policy changes, likely influenced Bitcoin’s price dynamics very much

  • Data preprocessing takes most of the time and is crucial for model training

Future Work

  • Adjust short-term trends on economic indexes to the 30 day average if possible
  • Gather more data for model training

Elegant Raichu